Join Our Whatsapp Group To Get Latest News
☞ Click Here ☜
The poll, dividing Gujarat by region, predicted that the BJP will nab 36 seats in Central, 13 seats in North, 43 seats in Saurashtra and 17 seats in South.
The Congress is predicted to win 27 seats in Central, 19 seats in North, 11 seats in Saurashtra and 16 seats in South.
Other parties are predicted to win zero seats. The Congress is predicted to gain five seats in Central, two seats in the North, 10 seats in the South but lose five seats in Saurashtra. The BJP is predicted to lose three seats in Central, two seats in North, nine seats in the South but pick up eight seats in Saurashtra.
In 2012 election, the BJP won 115 seats and the Congress netted 61 seats in the state. Other parties netted six seats in the state.
Here's the seat share as predicted by the survey.
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| 2012 | Central | 22 | 39 | 2 | 63 |
| North | 17 | 15 | 0 | 32 | |
| Saurashtra | 16 | 35 | 3 | 54 | |
| South | 6 | 26 | 1 | 33 | |
| Total | 61 | 115 | 6 | 182 |
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| 2017 | Central | 27 | 36 | 0 | 63 |
| North | 19 | 13 | 0 | 32 | |
| Saurashtra | 11 | 43 | 0 | 54 | |
| South | 16 | 17 | 0 | 33 | |
| Total | 73 | 109 | 0 | 182 |
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| Swing | Central | 5 | -3 | -2 | 0 |
| North | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Saurashtra | -5 | 8 | -3 | 0 | |
| South | 10 | -9 | -1 | 0 | |
| Total | 12 | -6 | -6 | 0 |
The opinion poll found that the Congress could get as much as 41.7 percent of the vote share across the state, however, the BJP will still be in the lead with a slim margin at 46.5 percent, despite the much-touted Patidar wave in certain pockets. The survey also showed that while the Congress vote share has gone up by roughly 2.9 percentage points, the BJP's share of votes has come down by 1.3 percentage points.
The share of Others remained more or less the same.
According to the survey, the Congress party could get the largest lead in South Gujarat where it vote share has improved by 7.5 percentage points as compared to 2012 results.
The party however, could not make much impact in Saurashtra, where it's vote share shows a growth of just 0.1 percentage points.
However, unlike its rival BJP, the Congress does not suffer a decline in its vote share anywhere in Gujarat.
The BJP on the other hand has slipped by 1.3 percentage points as compared to 2012. The only region where it manages to retain its lead in vote share is the Saurashtra region, while it slipped by eight percentage points—the largest decline—in South Gujarat, which has a sizeable presence of Muslims, Patidars and small traders, who were worst-hit by demonetisation and GST.
Here's the vote share tally as predicted by the survey.
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| 2012 | Central | 39.4 | 50.2 | 10.4 | 100 |
| North | 45.9 | 43.6 | 10.5 | 100 | |
| Saurashtra | 36.9 | 44.9 | 18.2 | 100 | |
| South | 37.3 | 52 | 10.7 | 100 | |
| Total | 38.8 | 47.8 | 13.4 | 100 |
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| 2017 | Central | 42.7 | 45.5 | 11.8 | 100 |
| North | 47.2 | 42.2 | 10.7 | 100 | |
| Saurashtra | 37.1 | 49.2 | 13.7 | 100 | |
| South | 44.8 | 43.9 | 11.2 | 100 | |
| Total | 41.7 | 46.5 | 11.8 | 100 |
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
| Year | Region | INC | BJP | Others | Total |
| Swing | Central | 3.4 | -4.7 | 1.4 | 100 |
| North | 1.3 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 100 | |
| Saurashtra | 0.1 | 4.3 | -4.4 | 100 | |
| South | 7.5 | -8.0 | 0.6 | 100 | |
| Total | 2.9 | -1.3 | -1.6 | 0 |
On Tuesday, an opinion poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS-aapkasamachar predictedthat BJP is likely to win 91-99 seats while the Congress will bag 78-86 seats.
Join our :- Telegram Channal Latest News
Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi likened the imminent elevation of Rahul Gandhi to dynastic succession of Mughal rulers, and castigated the Congress for abandoning "public modesty" by deciding to make a person, who is out on bail in a graft case, its presiden
The prime minister also targeted the Congress over corruption during its rule and spoke about the clean governance under him in Gujarat and at the Centre.
Modi said with the Congress deciding to make such a leader its president gave a glimpse of what culture the party will follow and the kind of leadership will emerge there in future.
Assembly elections in Gujarat will be held in two phases: On 9 and 14 December. The counting will take place on 18 December, the same day as Himachal Pradesh election.
ads 2